Comparing the predictive performance of a neural network model with some traditional market response models

Comparing the predictive performance of a neural network model with some traditional market response models

grating long-range strategic plans with short-term surable objectives. Incorporating non-financial traditional financial measures, the balanced scord ...

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grating long-range strategic plans with short-term surable objectives. Incorporating non-financial traditional financial measures, the balanced scord can be a central management system for lementing a firm's strategic vision. RSE, R. wing a Company iness Quarterly 59 (1), 33-39 (Autumn 1994) Bombay Company has grown from one store in ) to 445 stores in 1994). The company's formula been straightforward. It includes the facility and :tice of constant change, blocking out imitators, ,iding value to customers, ensuring the company is ket driven, designing its own products, managing attracting and keeping capable staff, and not mding rapidly. The strategy has worked.

r,D. os Theory and Strategy: Theory, Application Managerial implications tegic Management Journal 15,167-178 nmer 1994) 3s theory provides a useful theoretical framework Lnderstanding the dynamic evolution of industries the complex interactions among industry actors. argued that industries can be conceptualized and eled as complex, dynamic systems, which exhibit unpredictability and underlying order. The relkce of chaos theory for strategy is discussed, and a her of managerial implications are suggested. To trate the application of chaos theory, a simulation el is presented. The results demonstrate how manmight underestimate the costs of international Luction.

VIDUAL PLANNING TOPICS-ECASTING

,N, tegration and Forecast Evaluation: Some ons From National Institute Forecasts ~a] of Forecasting 13 (5), 481-501 (September

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recent experience of macroeconomic forecasting e United Kingdom has prompted renewed interest ~nt Awareness

in the evaluation of economic forecasts. Cointegration tests are used to investigate what can be learnt from the forecasts produced by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) over the last two decades. Whilst the forecasts and outturns are found to be cointegrated, there remains evidence of systematic relationships between a number of forecast errors.

JONSSON,B. and AGREN,A. Forecasting Care Expenditures Using Household Survey Data Journal of Forecasting 13 (5), 435-448 (September 1994) Surveys collecting data on consumer attitudes and buying intentions have been performed in Sweden since 1973. The usefulness of these data is assessed as quick indicators of the development of household expenditures on automobiles. The evaluation considers explanatory power as well as the prediction accuracy. It turns out that the best single indicator is among the plan indices. However, an indicator based on car registration statistics is found to be at least as good. By combining plan/attitude indices with car registrations, considerable improvements can be obtained. BEVERIDGE,S. and OICKLE, C. A Comparison of Box-Jenkins and Objective Methods For Determining the Order of a Non-seasonal ARMA Model Journal of Forecasting 13 (5), 419-434 (September 1994) Different procedures are evaluated for selecting the order of a non-seasonal ARMA model. The forecasting accuracy of models developed by the personalized Box-Jenkins (BJ) methodology is compared with models chosen by numerous automatic procedures. Any objective selection criteria provide structures equal or superior to the time-consuming BJ method. Automatic techniques that select the best models for forecasting are similar in size to BJ models although they often disagree on model order. DASGUPTA,C. G., DISPENSA,G. S. and GHOSE, S. Comparing the Predictive Performance of a Neural Network Model with Some Traditional Market Response Models International Journal of Forecasting 10 (2), 235-244 (September 1994) The study compares the performance of two statistical market response models (a logistic regression model

and a discriminant analysis model) to that of a back propagation neural network model. The comparative performances of these models are evaluated with respect to their ability to identify consumer segments based upon their willingness to take financial risks and to purchase a non-traditional investment product. The empirical analysis is conducted using two different real-world individual level cross-sectional data sets related to the marketing of financial services.

INDIVIDUAL PLANNING TOPICS-MODELS

INDIVIDUAL PLANNING TOPICS--STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT VON K~OGH, G., ROOS, J. and SLOCUM,K.

An Essay on Corporate Epistemology

Strategic Management Journal 15, 53-71 (Summer 1994) The objective is to contribute to a new perspective of strategic management by developing a new theory of organizational knowledge. This epistemology broadens strategic management to also include the advancement activities of the organization. In addition to discussing development of organizational knowledge, emphasis is given to fundamental consequences for research methodology. BLACK, J. A. and BOAL, K. B.

KUMAR, V,

Forecasting Performance of Market Share Models: An Assessment, Additional Insights, and Guidelines

International Journal of Forecasting 10 (2), 295-312 (September 1994) The research provides an assessment of the relevant literature on market share models and identifies the need for further research. Additional insights are generated by using point-of-sale scanners for evaluating the forecasting performance of market share models under various conditions. Naive models outperform all types of econometric models when large errors are present in the competitors' predictor variables, and among the econometric models, linear models produce better forecasts than attraction models.

Strategic Resources: Traits, Configurations and Paths to Sustainable Competitive Advantage

Strategic Management Journal 15,131-148 (Summer 1994) The resource-based view of the firm holds that certain assets with certain characteristics will lead to sustainable competitive advantage. Such a trait approach overlooks the dynamics of the creation of firm resources. The resources are made up of factor networks which have specific interfactor and interresource relationships that result in the characteristic traits being evidenced. Specific configurations that lead to high or very high support of sustainable competitive advantage are proposed. The implications are discussed.

BELL, S.

Methods and Mindsets: Towards an Understanding of the Tyranny of Methodology

Public Administration and Development 14, 323338 (4 October 1994) Methods have been exported to developing countries for use in a range of development projects. The mindsets which are invoked by traditional Western scientific methods are reviewed. Two areas of existing experience are investigated and a critical perspective developed of one particular form of information systems development method. Although no definitive conclusions are drawn, observations relating to an action plan are provided. These stress the need to be conscious of what is involved in the export of any method.

PLANNING IN SPECIFIC MANAGEMENT AREAS-STRATEGIC ALLIANCES NORBURN, D. and SCHOENBERG,R.

European Cross-border Acquisitions: How Was It For You?

Long Range Planning 27, 25-34 (4 AugUst 1994) The last ten years have seen acquisition as a favoured means to maintain earnings per shar e expectations despite the risks. The formation of the iSingle Market has accelerated activity yet there are still a high number of failures. Many industries have consolidated to defend against market entry from North America and i Long Range Planning Vol. 28

February 1995