Response of ecosystem services to land use and cover change: A case study in Chengdu City

Response of ecosystem services to land use and cover change: A case study in Chengdu City

G Model ARTICLE IN PRESS RECYCL-3496; No. of Pages 10 Resources, Conservation and Recycling xxx (2017) xxx–xxx Contents lists available at Science...

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ARTICLE IN PRESS

RECYCL-3496; No. of Pages 10

Resources, Conservation and Recycling xxx (2017) xxx–xxx

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

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Response of ecosystem services to land use and cover change: A case study in Chengdu City Yifan Li a , Jinyan Zhan a,∗ , Yu Liu b , Fan Zhang a , Miaolin Zhang c a b c

School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China Institute of policy and management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China School of Land Science and Technology, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China

a r t i c l e

i n f o

Article history: Received 26 January 2017 Received in revised form 22 March 2017 Accepted 29 March 2017 Available online xxx Keywords: Land use and cover change Ecosystem services value Resource footprints Sensitivity analysis Chengdu city

a b s t r a c t Land use and cover change is an important factor reflecting the resource footprints of the human race. Studies related to land use and cover change with ecosystem services value can provide a good reference for research on human resource footprints. In this study, through the interpretation of remote sensing images of Chengdu from 2000 to 2015, we obtained data on land use and cover change. Based on the analysis of the equivalent factor table for land use and cover change and ecosystem services value, we used the CPI accumulation coefficient and marginal value coefficient to modify the evaluation model of ecosystem services value, thus calculating the value of ecosystem services for Chengdu. The results show that the area under farmland and grassland continued to decrease, while the area covered by forest land, water area, construction land and unused land continued to increase in general. The ecosystem services value of Chengdu increased from 2.86 × 1010 RMB yuan in 2000 to 5.02 × 1010 RMB yuan in 2015, indicating a 75.46% increase. From this study, we determined that the development of Chengdu during 2000–2015 is sustainable, with reasonable land use, and will provide an important reference for economic development and land use policy in Chengdu in the future. © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction Land is the basis for human survival, providing resources and foods (Deng et al., 2014). For a long time, land use patterns varied, depending on both land bearing capacity and production capacity. Throughout human history, land use has always been significant, regardless of how advanced the social productivity was (Zhan et al., 2010). Land use and cover change are important factors reflecting the resource footprints of humans, being a popular topic with widespread public concern. However, with the improvement in the productivity of human society, the use and transformation of land by humans is becoming increasingly frequent, leading to a series of ecological and environmental issues (Zhan et al., 2013). The effective evaluation of land use and cover change has become an urgent issue. Therefore, many methods have been proposed to evaluate land use and cover change, for example, land use dynamic degree (Pontau et al., 2015; Zhen et al., 2007), land use transfer matrix

∗ Corresponding author at: School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China. E-mail address: [email protected] (J. Zhan).

(Konig et al., 2013; Zhen et al., 2014), ecological footprint (Gao and Xu, 2014; Mancini et al., 2016), ecosystem services (Pei et al., 2015; Peng et al., 2016; Xie et al., 2010) and so on. Among them, ecosystem services are commonly used by many researchers, especially in the construction of ecological civilization for China. Some scholars have been undertaking researches related to land use and cover change, as well as ecosystem services (Deng et al., 2013; Song and Deng, 2015). Many methods have been developed to assess the response of ecosystem services to land use and cover change, which can be used on a global (Costanza et al., 1997; Sutton and Costanza, 2002), national (Hausner et al., 2015; Lawler et al., 2014), regional (Brauman et al., 2015; Dupras et al., 2016), and basin scale (Deng et al., 2015; Shi et al., 2015). Based on land use and cover change, Costanza et al. (1997) divided ecosystem services into 17 categories, calculating the value of global ecosystem services function, which was published in Nature. During the course of the study in Amazon rainforest, Portela and Rademacher (2001) suggested a dynamic model, which included the driving force of deforestation, land use and cover change, ecosystem services and ecosystem assessment. This model reflects the different land use patterns that reduce the value of ecosystem services. In the study of ecosystem services and land use vulnerability, Metzger et al. (2006) pointed out that the ability of an ecosystem to provide a series of important services

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.03.009 0921-3449/© 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Please cite this article in press as: Li, Y., et al., Response of ecosystem services to land use and cover change: A case study in Chengdu City. Resour Conserv Recy (2017), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.03.009

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for society was influenced by climate change, social and economic characteristics, land use, biodiversity, atmospheric composition. A large number of domestic scholars also used the Chinese terrestrial ecosystem services value equivalent factor table, which was developed by Xie et al. (2003) to study the response of ecosystem services to land use and cover change. As far as China is concerned, Chengdu plain is an important commodity grain production base, where the contradiction between food security and ecological civilization is particularly prominent (Lu et al., 2011). Studying the response of ecosystem services to land use and cover change in Chengdu has a strong practical significance with regard to ensuring food security while protecting the ecological civilization in China (Peng et al., 2016). Moreover, it can provide a valuable reference for research related to human resource footprints. In this paper, with the interpretation of remote sensing data from 2000 to 2015, Chengdu city is taken as the study area to obtain data on land use and cover change. These data are combined with ecosystem services value equivalent factor table to calculate the ecosystem services value of Chengdu. And we use the CPI accumulation coefficient and the marginal value coefficient to revise and improve the ecosystem services value evaluation model, which considers the actual situation in Chengdu, and compared GDP, urbanization rate, Engel coefficient of Chengdu with the national level in China. We believe that this will make the model more accurate and applicable to Chengdu. 2. Overview of the study area Chengdu is located between 102◦ 54 E–104◦ 53 E and 30◦ 05 N–31◦ 26 N, in the hinterland of Chengdu plain (Fig. 1). Chengdu is one of the most historically important cities in China. It is the capital city of Sichuan Province, serving as a political, industrial and cultural center on a provincial level, in addition to being a major economic center for southwest China (Qin, 2015). There belongs to the sub-tropical zone, with annual average temperatures of 15–18 ◦ C, annual precipitation of approximately 1000 mm, annual sunshine hour between 1000 and 1600 h, which is the lowest in China (Zheng et al., 2010). Additionally, Chengdu is a significant ecological buffer zone in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, due to the certain impact on the ecological balance of the Yangtze River Basin (Peng et al., 2016). Chengdu is a typical mega city in China, with the total land area of 12119 km2 , and the urban land area of it is 862.19 km2 . There are 9 districts, 6 counties and 4 county-level cities in Chengdu (Chen et al., 2016). The population of Chengdu was 12.28 million, with a GDP of 1.22 trillion yuan in 2016, which have soared by nearly 7.7% compared with last year, ranking first in the sub-provincial cities of China. There is a complex topography, diverse natural ecological environment and rich biological and mineral resources in Chengdu. However, the associated rapid increase in resource consumption has caused resource inefficiencies (Zhang et al., 2014). The conflict between economic development and environmental protection in Chengdu has become severe.

area includes rivers, lakes, reservoirs and ponds. Construction land includes residential areas, industrial and mining land, transportation land and land for water conservation facilities. 3.2. The model of ecosystem services value calculation At present, there are many methods to assess the value of ecosystem services in China and abroad. Ecosystem services were classified into 17 types by Costanza et al. (1997), who set the equivalent factor of services value, drawing a single value equivalent factor. Based on this, he calculated the ecosystem services value of every item using Eq. (1) and obtained the year of global ecosystem services value. Since then, research on global ecosystem services value evaluation has been developing (Brown, 2013). However, the value of equivalent factor put forward by Costanza is based on the global ecosystem, which is not entirely applicable to China (Zhang et al., 2012). Therefore, based on the research by Costanza, the classification method of ecosystem services in China was proposed by Xie et al. (2003). Using the questionnaire scoring method, he analyzed the views of domestic scholars on the ecosystem services in China and formulated the “Chinese land ecosystem services value equivalent factor table”. Based on the evaluation method of ecosystem services value of Costanza and in accordance with ecosystem services value equivalent factor table, we used the CPI accumulation coefficient and marginal value coefficient to modify the evaluation model of ecosystem services value, thus calculating the ecosystem services value for Chengdu. In this paper, we used the “Chinese land ecosystem services value equivalent factor table”, with the farmland, grassland, forest land, water area and unused land in Chengdu corresponding to the farmland, grassland, forest land, river and lake, and desert land in the “Chinese terrestrial ecosystem services value equivalent factor”. Due to the lack of data, the equivalent factor of construction land was not within the scope of our consideration. Hence, we set its factor as 0. Therefore, we get the equivalent factor of ecosystem services value in Chengdu (Table 1). The economic value of the average yield per hectare of farmland across the entire country is determined by the economic value of the natural grain yield per year, which is the value of grain production in the field of farmland ecosystem for a year. Therefore, based on the value of the equivalent factor and the conclusion that the value of a single equivalent factor is equal to 1/7 of the value of grain per unit area, we calculated the economic value of the food production service provided by the municipal unit of farmland ecosystem in Chengdu by Eq. (1), which is the unit equivalent factor value Et . Subsequently, based on the Chinese consumer price index (CPI) statistics of 1979–2015 announced by the National Bureau of Statistics, we introduced the CPI cumulative index correction factor CPIt to correct it, thus obtaining the corrected unit equivalent factor value E  t which is shown in Eq. (2). Here, we take the CPI index cumulative value from 1979 as the reference, transforming the economic value of each year into the economic value of 2015 to eliminate the impact of inflation. Et =

3. Data and methodology 3.1. Data preparation The data regarding land use and cover change are based on the Landsat TM/ETM remote sensing images of Chengdu from 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015, which were obtained from the website of United States Geological Survey. After pretreatment, the land types of Chengdu were divided into six types, which are farmland, forest land, grassland, water area, construction land and unused land. Farmland includes dry land and paddy fields, while the water

E t =

Qt 1 × 7 Mt

, (1)

1 Qt × CPIt × 7 Mt

, (2)

where Qt is the total output value of major food crops in the year t; Mt is the cultivation area of main grain crops in the year t. The calculation of the total value of ecosystem services proposed by Xie and others is shown in Eq. (3) and Eq. (4): ESV =

n 

Ak Uk

(n = 1, 2, ...... , 6)

, (3)

k

Please cite this article in press as: Li, Y., et al., Response of ecosystem services to land use and cover change: A case study in Chengdu City. Resour Conserv Recy (2017), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.03.009

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Fig. 1. Location of Chengdu City.

Uk = E  t × Dk

, (4)

where ESV is the total value of ecosystem services; Ak is the area under land use type k; Uk is the ecosystem services value per unit area of land use type k; E’t is the corrected value for unit equivalent factor; Dk is the ecosystem services equivalent value per unit area of land use type k. However, the establishment of the equivalent factor table is based on the expert scoring method, which is derived from the national people’s willingness and capacity to pay for the ecosystem services, as ascertained by 413 experts (Huang and Ma, 2013). Therefore, in order to improve the accuracy of our results, based on the actual situation of social and economic development in Chengdu, we used the marginal value correction factor to correct Uk , as seen in Eq. (5), with the marginal value correction factor being the product of the correction coefficient of willingness to pay and the correction coefficient of the capacity to pay. U  k = Uk × Pt × Rt

, (5)

where U  k is the revised Uk , which is the ecosystem services value per unit area of land use type k; Pt is the correction coefficient of willingness to pay in Chengdu; Rt is the correction coefficient of the capacity to pay in Chengdu. Pt =

lt l t

, (6)

Rt =

GDPt GDP  t

, (7)

l=

1+e

ESV =

n 

Ak U



× t

h H

(1, 2, ......, 6)

k

, (9)

k

3.3. The method of sensitivity test In this paper, the sensitivity test was carried out by using the coefficient sensitivity, which is widely used in economics. The change in ecosystem services value was tested by adjusting +50% or −50% in different types of ecosystem services value coefficients. We used the adjusted ecosystem services value coefficient to calculate the total value sensitivity coefficient of Chengdu city in 2000 and 2015, to eventually obtain the sensitivity of total ecosystem services value to ecosystem services value per unit area before and after the adjustment. The equation used is as follows:

  ESVj − ESVi /ESVi  CS = |  | VCjk − VCik

L 1 3− En

whose value is 1; h is the urbanization level of Chengdu; H is the urbanization level of China; Ent is the Engels coefficient for year t; GDPt is the per capita GDP of Chengdu in year t; GDP  t is the per capita GDP of China in year t. The total value of ecosystem services in Chengdu is calculated as:

/VCik

, (10)

, (8)

where lt is the social development coefficient of Chengdu in year t; l t is the social development coefficient of China in year t; L is the people’s willingness to pay in a highly socially developed stage,

where CS is the coefficient sensitivity of a value; ESV is the total value of ecosystem services; VC is the ecosystem services value coefficient per unit area; i indicates the value before adjustment; j indicates the value after adjustment; k indicates the land use types.

Please cite this article in press as: Li, Y., et al., Response of ecosystem services to land use and cover change: A case study in Chengdu City. Resour Conserv Recy (2017), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.03.009

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Fig. 2. Land use pattern of Chengdu in 2000–2015.

4. Results and discussion 4.1. Land use data in Chengdu The land use and cover change chart is shown in Fig. 2. The construction land is mainly concentrated in the eastern and central regions of Chengdu. The forest land and grassland are mainly concentrated in the northwest and southwest regions of Chengdu, respectively. The farmland is mainly concentrated in the eastern area and the central area in Chengdu, which is around the construction land. The most obvious change we can see is the change in construction land, and its area continued to increase during 2000–2015. We can note that a large part of farmland was converted to construction land, especially the farmland around construction land. Also, some grassland was converted to forest land and construction land in 2000–2015.

In order to observe land use and cover change more clearly, we used GIS method to make land use transfer map for 2000–2015 (Fig. 3), extracting relevant information from it, which is presented in Table 2. It can be seen from the data that the unchanged area under farmland and grassland is maintained at a low level. The conversion of farmland to construction land is more apparent, accounting for 11.68% of the original farmland area. Moreover, the converted farmland is mostly distributed around the original construction land. The degree of maintenance of unaltered grassland was 88.31%, with approximately 5.34% and 4.72% of the grassland being converted to forest land and construction land, respectively. The degree of maintenance of unaltered construction land, forest land, and water area was above 95%. Among these, about 3.77% of the water area was converted to construction land, most of which were originally distributed across urban areas, while 1.33% of the forest land and 1.39% of the construction land were converted to farmland, which were scattered near the original farmland. Only

Please cite this article in press as: Li, Y., et al., Response of ecosystem services to land use and cover change: A case study in Chengdu City. Resour Conserv Recy (2017), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.03.009

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Fig. 3. Land use transfer map of Chengdu in 2000–2015. Note: farmland, forest land, grassland, water area, construction land and unused land in this chart are indicated by 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6, respectively. The “1-2” represents the land use change from farmland to forest land, and other expressions are the same.

0.002% of unused land was converted to other land, all of which were changed to farmland. Moreover, in order to figure out the changes to each kind of land, we extracted the land use data for 2000–2015 from Fig. 2. Based on these data, we analyzed the trend of change in land use types in Chengdu, accounting for the proportion of each land area, which can be seen in Fig. 4 and Fig. 5. From Fig. 4, we can see that the area under farmland and grassland continued to decrease during 2000–2015, reducing by 12.68% and 7.49%, respectively. It means that the development of Chengdu during 2000–2015 occurred on a portion of farmland and grassland. The area covered by forest land, water area, construction land and unused land continued to increase in general between 2000 and 2015, increasing by 2.00%, 5.75%, 71.48% and 5541.43%, respectively. The areas under forest land and unused land have undergone significant change during 2005–2010. The area under forest land generally increased during 2000–2015, although there was a reduction during 2005–2010. Meanwhile, the area under unused land remained almost unchanged during 2000–2005, although there was a sharp increase during 2005–2010, from 44.53 hm2 in 2005 to 1948.49 hm2 in 2010, with a variation range of 4275.68%. Moreover, we know that the largest land use change in Chengdu was with regard to unused land, with the area under it increasing from 44.58 hm2 in 2000 to 2514.95 hm2 in 2015. From Fig. 5, we can see that the area under farmland occupies the largest proportion of the total area, followed by forest

land, construction land, grassland, water area, and unused land. The area under farmland and grassland accounted for 64.33%, 62.13%, 61.39%, and 56.41% of the total area in 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015, respectively. To some extent, it reflects that Chengdu is a large grain production base in China. Moreover, based on the data of land in Chengdu, we calculated the dynamic degree of land use. The results are shown in Table 3, which indicate that the maximum and minimum dynamic degree of land use in Chengdu for every five years is the change in unused land during 2005–2010 and 2000–2005. Moreover, the maximum and minimum dynamic degree of land use in Chengdu for every ten years is the change in unused land during 2005–2010 and grassland during 2000–2010, while the maximum and minimum dynamic degree of land use in Chengdu for every fifteen years is the change in unused land and forest land during 2000–2015. From these results, we can find that the most noticeable change of land use in Chengdu is with regard to unused land, which underwent a significant change during 2005–2010. Combined with the relevant historical event, we believe that this result may have been caused by the Wenchuan earthquake of 2008. The strong earthquake resulted in some geological changes, causing a part of the other land types to become unused land. Also, as we can see in Fig. 3 that the farmland, construction land, forest land and grassland has been changed to unused land in different degrees. I think if we can compare the data before and after the earthquake in Chengdu, we can see the changes more clearly, but unfortunately we lack this part of the data.

Please cite this article in press as: Li, Y., et al., Response of ecosystem services to land use and cover change: A case study in Chengdu City. Resour Conserv Recy (2017), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.03.009

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Fig. 4. Land use change of Chengdu in 2000–2015.

Fig. 5. Area percentage for land use of Chengdu in 2000–2015.

4.2. Ecosystem services value in Chengdu Table 1 provides the equivalent factor of ecosystem services value in Chengdu. Combining it with previous equations, we can

obtain the ecosystem services value per unit area of land (Table 4). From the table, we can see that the ecosystem services value per unit area of all land types continued to increase during 2000–2015, with the ecosystem services value of each land use type being in

Please cite this article in press as: Li, Y., et al., Response of ecosystem services to land use and cover change: A case study in Chengdu City. Resour Conserv Recy (2017), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.03.009

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Table 1 Equivalent factor of ecosystem services value in Chengdu. Service types

Evaluation index

Forest land

Grassland

Farmland

Water area

Construction land

Unused land

Supply service

Food production Raw material production

0.33 2.98

0.43 0.36

1.00 0.39

0.53 0.35

0.00 0.00

0.02 0.04

Regulation service

Gas regulation Climate regulation Hydrological regulation waste disposal

4.32 4.07 4.09 1.72

1.5 1.56 1.52 1.32

0.72 0.97 0.77 1.39

0.51 2.06 18.77 14.85

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.06 0.13 0.07 0.26

Support service

Soil conservation Biodiversity protection

4.02 4.51

2.24 1.87

1.47 1.02

0.41 3.43

0.00 0.00

0.17 0.4

Cultural Service

Provide aesthetic landscape

2.08

0.87

0.17

4.44

0.00

0.24

28.12

11.67

7.90

45.35

0.00

1.39

Total

Table 2 Percentage of land use transfer in 2000–2015.

Farmland (2000) Forest land (2000) Grassland (2000) Water area (2000) Construction land (2000) Unused land (2000)

Farmland (2015)

Forest land (2015)

Grassland (2015)

Water area (2015)

Construction land (2015)

Unused land (2015)

86.46% 1.33% 0.49% 0.64% 1.39% 0.002%

1.54% 96.89% 5.34% 0.11% 0.90% 0.00%

0.18% 0.35% 88.31% 0.00% 0.04% 0.00%

0.13% 0.13% 0.55% 95.49% 0.21% 0.00%

11.68% 0.60% 4.72% 3.77% 97.45% 0.00%

0.01% 0.70% 0.59% 0.00% 0.01% 99.998%

Note: the percentage of unused land transfer to farmland in 2000–2015 is so small that we retain three digits after the decimal point (0.002%), which is the same as the percentage of unused land for unchanged (99.998%).

Table 3 Land use dynamic degree of Chengdu in 2000–2015.

Farmland Forest land Grassland Water area Construction land Unused land

2000–2005

2005–2010

2010–2015

2000–2010

2005–2015

2000–2015

−3.68% 0.20% −0.06% −0.72% 21.68% −0.12%

−1.21% −0.55% −0.85% 3.82% 5.35% 4275.68%

−8.24% 2.36% −6.64% 2.60% 33.77% 29.07%

−4.85% −0.35% −0.91% 3.07% 28.19% 4270.35%

−9.34% 1.79% −7.43% 6.52% 40.92% 5547.77%

−12.68% 2.00% −7.49% 5.75% 71.48% 5540.90%

Table 4 Ecosystem services value per unit area of land in 2000–2015. Year

Farmland (×104 yuan)

Forest land (×104 yuan)

Grassland (×104 yuan)

Water area (×104 yuan)

Unused land (×104 yuan)

2000 2005 2010 2015

1.46 1.66 2.14 2.67

5.21 5.91 7.62 9.49

2.16 2.45 3.16 3.94

8.41 9.54 12.29 15.31

0.26 0.29 0.38 0.47

the following order: water area, forest land, grassland, farmland and unused land, which is the same as the ranking of ecosystem services value equivalent factor value. Combining Table 4 with the land use data for 2000–2015, we get the ecosystem services value for Chengdu, which is shown in Table 5. As can be seen, the total ecosystem services value of Chengdu increased from 2.86 × 1010 RMB yuan in 2000 to 5.02 × 1010 RMB yuan in 2015, which was an increase of 75.46%. The ecosystem services value of farmland, forest land, grassland, water area and unused land increased by 58.95%, 85.68%, 68.40%, 92.50% and 10169.47%, respectively. Moreover, the change in the ecosystem services value of each land use type being similar to the trend of total value change indicates that those land use types were used in a similar way during 2000–2015. In order to analyze the impact of land use change on ecosystem services value in each region more intuitively, based on Fig. 3, we used visual graph to show it. The change in ecosystem services value before and after the change in regional land use is shown in Fig. 6. From this figure, we can see that the ecosystem services value

in central Chengdu continue to decrease. The ecosystem services value of regions around the city circle and the new construction land decreased relatively large, which may be caused by the urbanization of Chengdu in these years. The ecosystem services value of original city was also decreased in these years, and the reason for this situation may be that the contribution of construction land to ecosystem services value is reduced. What’s more, ecosystem services value in northern and eastern of Chengdu continued to increase, especially with regard to forest land and areas around the forest land, while the ecosystem services value of water area was increased significantly. Compared with the land use and cover change in Chengdu, we hold the belief that the land use change from forest land to construction land would have a greater negative impact on ecosystem services value, followed by the change from grassland and farmland to construction land. Also, the reverse changes would contribute to improving the value of ecosystem services.

Please cite this article in press as: Li, Y., et al., Response of ecosystem services to land use and cover change: A case study in Chengdu City. Resour Conserv Recy (2017), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.03.009

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Table 5 Ecosystem services value for each land use type of Chengdu in 2000–2015. Year

Farmland (×1010 yuan)

Forest land (×1010 yuan)

Grassland (×109 yuan)

Water area (×109 yuan)

Unused land (×107 yuan)

Total (×1010 yuan)

2000 2005 2010 2015

1.06 1.16 1.48 1.69

1.53 1.73 2.22 2.83

1.19 1.34 1.72 2.00

1.56 1.76 2.36 3.01

0.01 0.01 0.73 1.18

2.86 3.20 4.11 5.02

Note: the unit of them is × 1011 yuan.

Fig. 6. Change of ecosystem services value for Chengdu in 2000–2015.

Table 6 The result of sensitivity test for ecosystem services value in Chengdu. Changed VC

Changed ESV (×1014 yuan)

CS

2000

2015

2000

2015

Farmland

VC + 50% VC − 50%

11.85 3.95

3.39 2.33

5.87 4.18

0.37

0.34

Forest land

VC + 50% VC − 50%

42.18 14.06

3.62 2.1

5.59 2.76

0.53

0.23

Grassland

VC + 50% VC − 50%

17.51 5.84

2.92 2.8

4.28 4.08

0.04

0.3

Water area

VC + 50% VC-50%

68.03 22.68

2.94 2.78

4.33 4.03

0.05

0.28

Unused land

VC + 50% VC − 50%

2.09 0.7

2.86 2.86

4.18 4.18

0

0.34

4.3. Sensitivity test The calculation results of sensitivity test are shown in Table 6. It can be seen that the sensitivity index of all the five land types in Please cite this article in press as: Li, Y., et al., Response of ecosystem services to land use and cover change: A case study in Chengdu City. Resour Conserv Recy (2017), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.03.009

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Chengdu was less than 1, which means that the ecosystem services value coefficient is inelastic and the research results are reliable. In 2000, forest land had the highest sensitivity index of 0.53. This does mean that when ecosystem services value coefficient per unit area of forest land increases by 1%, the total value of ecosystem services in Chengdu would increase by 0.53%. The second highest sensitivity index was for farmland, which was 0.37. The sensitivity index of water area, grassland and unused land was relatively small, which indicates that the total value of ecosystem services in Chengdu is less affected by the value coefficient of these land use types. In 2015, the sensitivity index of farmland, forest land, grassland, water area, and unused land was 0.34, 0.23, 0.30, 0.28, and 0.34, respectively. Compared with 2000, the sensitivity index of grassland, water area and unused land increased, which means that the impact of these land use types on ecosystem services value also increased. In general, the effect of ecosystem services value coefficient per unit area of forest land and farmland on the total ecosystem services value in Chengdu was decreased in 2000–2015, and the effect of unused land, grassland, water area was increased.

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the ecosystem services value of unused land in Chengdu has a very special significance, as it facilitated a big change during 2005–2010. But unfortunately we lack more detailed data to analyze it. (3) In terms of sensitivity test of ecosystem services value of Chengdu during 2000–2015, we can see that the sensitivity index of five land types in Chengdu is less than 1, which means that the ecosystem services value coefficient is inelastic and the research results are reliable. And we get that the effect of ecosystem services value coefficient per unit area of forest land and farmland on the total ecosystem services value in Chengdu was decreased in 2000–2015, and the effect of unused land, grassland, water area was increased. Lastly, this article has some shortcomings. Due to the lack of data, the equivalent factor of construction land is not within the scope of our consideration. In order to make this study more comprehensible, we set the factor of construction land as 0. However, other studies have shown that construction land has a negative impact on ecosystem services value. Therefore, in future research, we will deepen the analysis of the effect of construction land on ecosystem services value.

5. Conclusions In this study, we used the interpretation of remote sensing images of Chengdu in 2000–2015 to obtain data on land use and cover change. Based on ecosystem services value equivalent factor table, we used the CPI accumulation coefficient and marginal value coefficient to modify the evaluation model of ecosystem services value, calculating the ecosystem services value for Chengdu. According to the actual situation of Chengdu, we used the GDP, urbanization rate, Engel coefficient in Chengdu to compare with the national level in China, respectively, which would make the model more suitable for Chengdu. In addition, we use visualization graphics to show the changes of land use and ecosystem services value in Chengdu. Based on the results of this study, three conclusions can be drawn as follows: (1) In terms of land use and cover change in Chengdu during 2000–2015, we found that the area under farmland and grassland continued to decrease, while the area covered by forest land, water area, construction land and unused land increased in general. This means that with the development in Chengdu, a portion of the farmland and grassland were converted for other land use types. Construction land increased by 71.48% during 2000–2015, which reflects the rapid development of Chengdu during this period. Moreover, land use data reflect the other changes in Chengdu as well. For example, unused land increased by 4275.68% during 2005–2010. It was the biggest of all land use and cover change in Chengdu. Such a significant increase indicates that there has been a major change in Chengdu during these 5 years. Based on relevant historical event, we believe that this result may have been caused by the Wenchuan earthquake of 2008. That is the Wenchuan earthquake caused the change of land use in Chengdu, especially unused land. (2) The total ecosystem services value of Chengdu increased from 2.86 × 1010 RMB yuan in 2000 to 5.02 × 1010 RMB yuan in 2015, which was an increase of 75.46%. During 2000–2015, the ecosystem services value of all land use types showed a general upward trend, which was similar to that of the total ecosystem services value for Chengdu. The ecosystem services value of farmland, forest land, grassland, water area, unused land and total area changed by 58.95%, 85.68%, 68.40%, 92.50%, 10169.47% and 75.46%, respectively. We certainly found that

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Please cite this article in press as: Li, Y., et al., Response of ecosystem services to land use and cover change: A case study in Chengdu City. Resour Conserv Recy (2017), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.03.009