The third international symposium on forecasting

The third international symposium on forecasting

The Third International Symposium on Forecasting Jozef W. M. van Doom Department of Leisure Studies Tilburg University-The Netherlands The conference...

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The Third International Symposium on Forecasting Jozef W. M. van Doom Department of Leisure Studies Tilburg University-The Netherlands

The conference’s most important sponsor, The International Society of Forecasters, is known as a worldwide group of forecasting experts. consisting of future researchers (mainly specialized in methods and techniques). practitioners, and decisionmakers involved with forecasting in the management, social, engineering, and behavioral sciences. Since 198 1 an annual world conference has been held ( 198 1 Quebec City, 1982 Istanbul). The 1983 conference was held in Philadelphia, USA, June 5-8. This time there were over 1,000 participants. There were about 100 sessions, each lasting one-and-a-half hours. Three to five papers were presented in each session, with little time for discussion. The main objective of the conference was presentation and exchange of results of recently conducted research. The general theme was Pragmatic Research. Those who presented papers were asked to describe the actual or potential value of their research related to practical forecasting situations. The session on Tourism and Air Transport had four papers, “The Impact of Perceptions, Demographics and Events on American’s European Pleasure Travel Plans” (Edward Berroll: “Establishing a Measure ofAirline Preference for Business and Non-Business Travelers” (Lois D. Etherington and Turgut Varl; “Forecasting Tourism by Means of Travel Series over Various Time Spans Under Specified Scenarios” (RRV. Baron); and “How Can the Tourism Forecaster Satisfy the Policymaker? Usefulness Criteria of Forecasting Techniques in General and by the Sibyl/Runner Program” (Jozef W. M. van Doom). In short, two of these papers dealt with the input side of the forecasting process (Berrol, Etherington/Varl, and the remaining two specifically dealt with forecasting methods and techniques (Baron and van Theconsolidated


Department includes reports on research activities. reports on the work of and private agenCte% Conference reports. field (industry) reports. and other relevant topics and timely issues. The for this department are: Research Notes? Field Imdustly) Notesb: Agency Reportsb Conference Reports:and OtherNotes/Reportsb.lndividualslnterested insubmittlngresearch notesandreportsshouldwrite dtrecdy to Dr. Turgut Var. Dept. of Economics and Commerce. Simon Fraser University. Burnaby. B.C. VSA 1~6 Canada. The Editor re~enes the right to evaluate submitted materials for their applicability and usefulness and ~11 decide whether to publish each (in original or edited form1 in this Department. “Three to five tqpewrltten pages (double spacel. including bibliography. bOne to three twwritten pages [double space). Including bibliography.


Annals Prlnted

ojTourfsm Research. Vol. 11. pp. 523.527. In the USA All rights reserved.

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1984 Q 1984 J. Jafarl



0160~73831.84 s3.00 and Pergamon Press Ltd

REPORTS AND RESEARCH NOTES Doom). It was noted that of the papers presented three concentrated on defining certain sets of criteria: criteria of destination choice (Berroll: criteria of airline selection (Etherington/Var) and criteria of usefulness of forecasting techniques (van Doom). And the remaining paper was a fine example of the elaboration of Baron’s previous research in the field, directed towards an integration of forecasting techniques into one framework (integrative forecasting). As the fourth International Conference, to be held in London, UK, will not include a tourism session, Professor Baron’s initiative to launch an International Symposium elsewhere might be of interest. Israel’s Ministry of Tourism together with many other institutions will be preparing and sponsoring this Symposium, to be called “Tourism and Transport Research and Applications for Strategy, Tactics and Planning.” This Symposium is to be held in Jerusalem (end of 1984 and beginning of 1985). Those interested in participating should write to R. R. V. Baron. Ministry of Tourism, 24 King George St.. Jerusalem, Israel, 91009. 0 0

Cooperative Tourism Efforts Joint NTO-Industry-Academe Action Program Jahr Jafari University of Wisconsin-Stout. USA

The second Educators’ Forum sponsored by the Pacific Area Travel Association (PATA) was held September 12-14, 1983. in Macau. The Forum was intended as a workshop to examine the relationship that presently exists among the National Tourism Organization (NTOs), the Travel Industry, and the Academic Institutions: and to formulate some joint NTOIndustry-Academe Action Programs that will assist educational and training centers in the performance of their educational tasks. The topics discussed included an integrated view of tourism, tourism education in retrospect, cooperative education, local industry support, and establishing training programs. Speakers included Marinho de Bastos (Macau), David Hicks (New Zealand). Jafar Jafari (USA), Lloyd Stear (Australia), Jose Mananzan (Philippine), Robert Beck (USA), John Love (USA), Douglas Pearce (New Zealand), Philip Davidoff (USA), and Virinder Kumar (India). The Forum summary, entitled “Tourism Action Program,” was prepared and presented at the last session by Jafar Jafari. the Forum Program Chairman. It reviewed the issues that were raised during the conference and identified several measures for consideration of the forum. Three working groups, composed of the representative of the NTOs. the Travel Industry, and the Academe were then formed to each address and react to the proposed Action Program. The groups reassembled in the final plenary session and 524